On mathematical modeling and analysis of co-movement and optimal portfolios of stock markets

Abstract

© 2016 by the Mathematical Association of Thailand. All rights reserved. This paper proposes to use the concept of time-varying copulas in probability theory as an appropriate mathematical modeling tool for investigating an important problem in economics, namely the co-movement of stock markets as well as optimal portfolio constructions on them. In the sense of expected shortfall, a coherent risk measure widely used in risk management of financial markets, we show that our time-varying copula models for GARCH perform better than the conventional DCC-GARCH model. We exhibit also various advantages of this approach in investment decisions. An application to G7 stock markets is given.